I say the market will do this

[Jim Fisher]

Will bottom out between 6,500 to 7,300 for the DOW. DOW will only be 8300 come 1-1-10 Gas will come down to $1.65 and once that gas comes down to $1.65 (within the next 6 months) mid class america will start spending disposable money again. Just in time for season.
I think that Christmas time will be down for most retailers and this will be the bottom. Lending rates will come to all time low and banks will start to lend money again. Within the next 3 months.

Your thoughts

[solman]

Wish I friggin' knew! If my crystal ball had been working correctly I would of pulled out of the market last fall. I just took a peek into it to respond to your question. You know what I saw?....Hey You!

[Kathe]

That would be nice but not sure what is going to happen. I think a lot is riding on this election. More than most people know.

[Alan @ TanToday]

Jim

Gas will never go down to what you wrote above. Not now, not ever again.

[rflick]

$2.59 here today, wholesale cost at $2.40

[Jim Fisher]

Jim

Gas will never go down to what you wrote above. Not now, not ever again.

When demand is lower then supply it will. As stated above from rflick. Evidence shows it will.
You must remember that gas saving machines are on the way hence a drop in oil consumption.
Economy is driving oil price down now but in the future the days of the hummer are limited and if I owned one ( AL Reasonover) get rid of it now while you still can. Everyone will be mileage conservative in the future

[gottatanfl]

Our gas has been dropping .10 a day we are down to $3.39 gallon.
More small Businesses are closing up here. So many vacant store fronts and so many more to come.......

[SBT 501]

Gas was under $2 in 2006 (for a few months). There is no reason why it could not drop to this level again as the world economy is going through a correction. Oil has dropped 45% in 2 months, yes oil and demand typically drops from summer to fall but usually not this much.

Gas has dropped $1.50 in the last 30 days in Oklahoma. Why couldn't it drop another 70 cents. The last time gas was consistently under $2 was 2005. When did the industry start its downward turn? hmmm

[InternationalTan]

gas was $2.95 this morning on the way to work for me. Im glad we passed the bail out, I mean with the way the stock market reacted and everything.....

[solman]

Gas at $2.99 as of late yesterday. For the "average" person I think that's a lot more relevant than the stock market. I don't know if it will make it down below two-dollars like Jim thinks it might, but anything below three-dollars is significant from a consumer's point of view. Unfortunately my gut tells me that when the market does gain it's footing and starts to climb so will fuel costs.

[UV MAN]

Well the Dow is only several hundred points for the 7300 mark now. Hell, for all we know it could happen next week. The economy is much worse then most people seem to realize. This was evident in my old thread about having our worst September on record. Proves it hits different areas at a different pace. National city looks to be the next bank to be taken over very quick. Our financial industry is collapsing. There needs to be some QUICK action this weekend. Right now gas is the LEAST of our problems. Car loans, school loans, business loans ect are all but nonexistent right now due to the financial collapse. We are in so me SERIOUS trouble right now. This is HISTORY in the making so hold on a pay attention to what is happening. Gas is nowhere near out biggest problem. The collapse of our financial system is our BACKBONE.

Keep in mind that oil per barrel has dropped a whopping 45% since it hit its high a few months back. Oil at the pumps has only dropped approx 25% in that same time frame. Not much has been talked about this issue as there are bigger fish to fry right now BUT they are contributing to the problem. So oil Companies are making 20% MORE profit PER BARREL then they were when oil was at its peak a few months back. Problem is the station owners are not selling as many gallons as they use to because consumers are cutting back. TODAY, oil should be approx 25% cheaper AT THE PUMP then it is right now. We continue to get GOUGED.

Oh yea, gas still $3.40 a gallon here. If it was equal per barrel to when the price was coming up we would be around $2.65 a gallon right now. That is a LOT of profit per gallon.

[Jag]

After losing Hundreds of Thousands of dollars in the Stock Market in the early 90s I thought screw that if I am going to lose my money I will lose it myself and not blame anyone else. I am not trusting it to some stupid ass CEO to lose anymore. I took my money and build 3 sucessful business that have all done well. When everyone ask how much I lost this month in the market I laugh, been there and done that.

[Tanning Queen]

But there are still mortgages being offered and loans are being made. It just depends on WHO you work with. I use PHH Mortgage services for my clients and have not had a problem with those who qualify still getting their mortgages. My people are being funded and they are still purchasing homes. PHH was also one of the few lenders that never got into sub primes nor did they lend to those who couldnt afford it. Maybe that is why they are not in financial trouble now.

Basically we are getting back to the times where you had to have good credit and some actual money in the bank to qualify for a mtg now. Houses are going back to the REAL value in many areas, not the over inflated crap a few years back.

Those who cant afford to purchase now will rent. Now is the time to actually invest in the RE market if you are able to. People will need to rent and someone has to own those homes.

Banks are ready to make deals too on homes. I have negotiated many short sales lately and I am amazed at how little they are willing to take in order to get rid of the house. One bank told me they are cancelling all forclosures on homes they get ANY offer on. So you can really get a bargin if you know what you are doing.

[RL4010]

I don't think that the Dow will close below 8000 by any sizeable amount, if you go back over the last 10 years it hasn't been below that level and that is what I base that on. Problem is that everything that was thought to be true over the last 10 years seems to be out the window.

Gas prices here today are as low as $2.39 and really with crude at the point it is now we should see gas actually very close to or below $2 a gallon soon.

The larger question is not what the Dow or gas prices are going to do but instead what will the economy from here on out look like. It is going to be much different than what it is today, the idea of Federal intervention let alone ownership in private banking is unheard of yet seems to be perfectly acceptable to people today. Anything to make us feel safe. That is 180 degrees from free market capitalism that I learned in college but seems to be the way to make people feel safe and unfreeze a system gone crazy.

The bigger picture then becomes what else does the Fed need to own in order to make us safe? How about if the need is felt for the Fed to own some of the major car dealerships to control distribution or to buy an ownership stake in grocery stores? Where does that slippery slope stop once it is started?

Truth be told, I think this move is both prudent and necessary but I hope it is short lived. It is also perhaps the best way to insure that taxpayer money put in harms way is recovered and in fact a profit made on that money. That would be one way to eliminate the national debt, simply set up Federal Bank owned by taxpayer dollars and let it profit a half trillion dollars a year.

[solman]

I have a really nice tanning salon I'd sell the Fed a stake in.

[RL4010]

The problem with the Fed buying stakes in some banks and the key is some banks is that the ones the Fed does not buy stakes in are private companies competing against tax payer dollar financed operations. That is the rub, now lets say the Fed decided that tanning salons were failing too fast and that they should buy every other one to prop up the industry. All is fine and dandy if you are the one they buy, but if not you feel betrayed by your very own tax dollars.

[bjhcpa]

Originally Posted by UV MAN

Keep in mind that oil per barrel has dropped a whopping 45% since it hit its high a few months back. Oil at the pumps has only dropped approx 25% in that same time frame. Not much has been talked about this issue as there are bigger fish to fry right now BUT they are contributing to the problem. So oil Companies are making 20% MORE profit PER BARREL then they were when oil was at its peak a few months back. Problem is the station owners are not selling as many gallons as they use to because consumers are cutting back. TODAY, oil should be approx 25% cheaper AT THE PUMP then it is right now. We continue to get GOUGED.

Oh yea, gas still $3.40 a gallon here. If it was equal per barrel to when the price was coming up we would be around $2.65 a gallon right now. That is a LOT of profit per gallon.

The gas you are buying at the pump is oil that was purchased 60 to 120 days ago at much higher prices, so gas should not necessarily be 25% cheaper today because oil dropped so drastically in the past month and is at a certain price today. Oil being sold today will not be in gas stations for 60 to 90 days. They will continue to come down.

Same on the way up. You are equating gas at 2.65 a gallon to a certain price of oil on the way up. That oil was likely purchased 3 months earlier at cheaper prices, thus the increase in gas was lagging behind barrel per oil prices.

for example, on the way up if oil was $100. a barrel on a certain day the gas being sold at 2.65 was bought 3 months ealier say at say $80 a On the way back down, oil drops to $100. a barrel but the gas being sold was purchased 3 months earlier at 120 or so. So not an equal comparison...in this case you are comparing gas prices between oil that was purchased at $80 and $120....not the $100 equal comparison that it appears on first glance.

Not to say they dont drag their feet a little more on the way down than the way up

[Jim Fisher]

UVMAN The dow closed at 8,451.19 on Friday. Now sure where you got the figure in the 7k range.

Gas does play a roll in the economy right now. Right now min wage should be $10 compared to gas prises.
As far as the auto industry.UVMAN you are right. The car loans are non existent.
Sold a HVAC system to a car salesman two weeks ago and he said that 80% of the sales people haven't sold a car for the month and it was the 25th of the month. National average is 10 a month. Problem being no one could get financing to buy the cars.
Car giants missed the boat and I'm surprised that no one had a car they have been holding back that runs off of gas/electric and gets 100 miles per gallon or more. Those guys would be making a killing. So much for future thinking.

[Alan @ TanToday]

Oil refineries are stll offline in the USA. Oil prices play a small roll in your daily gas prices as that oil purchased today will not become gasoline for months.

By the time oil refineries are back to 100% capacity for gasoline which wont be until April/May because they are focusing on home heating oil right now, consumption of gas will be on the increase once more and we will all be complaining that peak season is lower because of the crazy gas prices.

It will be Groundhog Day all over again with the same high prices and the same complaints.

Avg gas is the USA right now is $3.45.

[UV MAN]

The drop off in oil prices have been too slow. Should not be near 120 days. Funny, when gas is at an all time high it goes up daily. If we hit an all time high per barrel TODAY then while I am sleeping it will go to an all time high at the pump with the click of a finger. Funny how oil seems to take sooooo loooong to get to the pump when prices are going down BUT how quick it reaches the pump going up. They are gouging there is no doubt about that. OPEC, well they should all be in jail. As demand drops they just keep dropping production to keep prices up. When demand is high they say they cannot keep up and prices rise. THEY ARE ALL CROOKS.

As far as mortgage loans, yes, small Companies are the best to deal with right now. The problem is as when the Fed lowers rates it does not make it to the consumer. Rates have often gone UP as the Fed LOWERS. This is because banks have very little money to loan. Many of their high dollar bank customers have taken money out of banks and put them in a safer environment. People are afraid to use banks right now for large sums of money. That and all the bad loans that these banks still have are a killer. These two reasons make no money available to lend. It is a major problem.

Yes, the Dow closed above 8000. Still hard for me to be Bullish at all at this time. We had 1000 points of movement in the Dow Friday the biggest move ever. We also had the biggest 1 week loss ever in the Dow this week. Anything can happen at this point. They should have never lifted the short selling of the financial stocks as I feel they need more time. We could lose a couple more banks in the next couple weeks. National City being one of them.

Scary, times out there right now. I believe GM was down 31% on Thursday and their stock is now below $5. The government needs to take over all the bad loans or action NOW at the bailout paln cannot wait 4 weeks. This will free up money for banks to loan out and just operate in the correct way. Imagine going to your bank ATM and not being able to take money out. That is how bad it could get if the financial system collapses. The Fed will never let it get to that BUT they will have to take more action and lowering rates will not do a thing at this point. Just pissing in the wind.

Oh Yea, good buys in housing will still be had 1-2 years from now. Buying right now for investment is still WAY too soon. We still have 1-2 more years of falling prices then 2 years of stabilization.

Just my 2 cents - Good thread Jim!!!